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Feature Articles

 From 2012, we now list our articles in our Blog. Read the latest here

31/01/2009

Weathering the Storm

Make no mistake, 2009 will be a tough year for the world, many large storm clouds are gathering. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cut its projection for global economic growth in 2009 to just 0.5%. If the IMF is correct this represents the weakest period of economic growth the world has seen since the end of World War II. A global recession remains a distinct possibility in 2009, particularly with financial, equity, credit and currency markets remaining in turmoil. What will be the impact for our economy and local businesses ?

 In the world today, no economy is an island entire of itself; every economy is a piece of the overall global economy. Our economy has been a full participant in the recent global turmoil and will be negatively impacted by the weakening global economic conditions. But our domestic economy remains better placed than most to deal with the looming global economic storm. Most economists believe that the Australian economy will grow by between 0.5% and 1% in 2009, despite significant pockets of weakness developing during the year.
 
But what will our economy look like in 2009 ? We believe that the Australian economy will feature the following characteristics for at least the next twelve months – low growth (0.5-1%), low inflation (2.5-3.5%), low interest rates (2-3%) and low confidence (business and consumer).
 
However, we believe, with a significant economic downturn on the horizon, businesses will start to increase the employment of part-time workers to enable a quick response to changes in demand for products & services. Part-time employment will become, in the next year, a vitally important part of the economy, adding significant flexibility to businesses. In December 2008 the Australian economy lost 44,000 full-time jobs as companies reduced labour costs to brace for a weakening economy in 2009. But, at the same time, part-time positions soared, increasing by a massive 42,800 to 3,102,200 workers. The ability of businesses to survive the economic downturn will depend on their ability to respond very rapidly to changing patterns of consumer demand and competitive pressures. Employing a strong, skilled and committed workforce of part-time employees will be the inevitable solution.
 
 
Ross MacMillan holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Accounting, Finance and Systems) from the University of NSW, he is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, member of the Securities & Derivatives Industry Association and a fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australia.

Important Note: These articles have been prepared for general circulation and are circulated for general informational purposes only; these articles should not be regarded as business or investment advice. The articles represent the views of the writers and are subject to change without notice. Additionally, while every care has been taken in the preparation of the articles no representation or warranty as to accuracy or completeness of any statement is given. An individual or organisation should, before any business or investment decision is made, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to objectives, situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

 

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