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Feature Articles

 From 2012, we now list our articles in our Blog. Read the latest here

02/10/2010

Economic Update - Warm and Comfortable Economy

The Australian economy is currently in a warm and comfortable position – growth is around trend, inflation is running at 3.1%, unemployment has declined to 5.1% and official cash rate for interest rates remains at 4.5%. However, the underlying challenge for the Government and Reserve Bank will be to keep the economy at this level over the next few years and not allowing conditions to expand too rapidly as the global economy improves. This challenge will not be easy, due to a domestic economy that has been growing continuously for near to 20 years, with only moderately mild downturns during that time and is now reaching towards full capacity. Additionally, the mining and resources boom that began in 2005, and which abated for a time during the global financial crisis, is re-emerging, and placing further pressure on the economy.

 
Two key impacts of the stronger economy during the next 2 to 3 years are an even tighter labour market and higher interest rates. The Australian labour market during 2010 remained strong. Employment continues to increase and business surveys suggest further solid gains in employment during the next twelve months.
 
The Reserve Bank to counter the strong growth and despite the stellar rise of the Australian dollar, will in all probability move to increase interest rates (sooner rather than later). Most economists are expecting the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates by a quarter of a per cent on Melbourne Cup Day. While, many economists are forecasting as many as four more interest rate increases in 2011, which would take the official cash rate to 5.75% by December 2011.
 
Facing a stronger economy in 2011, most businesses should currently be undertaking capital expenditure and hiring staff that will allow them to cope with the increase in demand for goods and services. However, businesses should be mindful that interest rates will increase and that the Australian dollar is likely to remain high against most foreign currencies during the next twelve months.
 

Ross MacMillan holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Accounting, Finance and Systems) from the University of NSW, he is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, member of the Securities & Derivatives Industry Association and a fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australia.
 

Important Note: These articles have been prepared for general circulation and are circulated for general informational purposes only; these articles should not be regarded as business or investment advice. The articles represent the views of the writers and are subject to change without notice. Additionally, while every care has been taken in the preparation of the articles no representation or warranty as to accuracy or completeness of any statement is given. An individual or organisation should, before any business or investment decision is made, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to objectives, situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.

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